ENTERTAINMENT

Star Wars IX And Frozen II May Both Fail To Top

The Lion King Made another $7.53 million on Thursday, dropping 50 percent from last Thursday and 15% from yesterday. This provides the Jon Favreau-directed animated movie a $392 million domestic total after two weeks in North American theaters. Using a fluke, it’ll cross $400 million sometime now. And when it has continued to monitor 36/64 domestic/overseas, then its current worldwide cume ought to be only over/under $1.01 billion globally. Assuming and over/under $38 million third-weekend gross (-50%), the $175 million flick will have $430 million nationally and around $1.19 billion worldwide by Sunday night.

That will put it past Aladdin (now at about $1.015 billion)

Spider-man Far from Home (currently over/under $1.05 billion) and Captain Marvel ($1.128 Billion) to become the year’s second-biggest global grosser. And taking a look at the rest of the year’s masterpiece that have a shot in hell at supplanting The Lion King as the second-biggest grosser of the year. Alright, so Hobbs & Shaw could pull Wolf Warrior two numbers in China. Sony’s Jumanji: The following Level (opening December 13)could be a breakout sequel on top of its predecessor’s $962 million total.

However, realistically speaking, the next two super-duper blockbusters in contention to the silver trophy are Frozen II (November 22) and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (December 20). While both movies will be huge, can either of them expect to out-gross the (at this juncture) probably over/under $1.425 billion worldwide finish of this Disney musical vampire? Let’s dive in and see what we’re dealing with.

Frozen II is the sequel to Disney’s game-changing 2013/2014 animated mega-hit. The first Frozen legged Out to $400 million nationally from a $93 million Wed-Sun Thanksgiving debut, and it earned a jaw-dropping $249 million in Japan on its way to a record $1.276 billion worldwide cume. It is still, sans inflation, the biggest-grossing animated movie ever in raw global grosses. Disney continues to be pretty spartan with new Frozen content, only one five-minute animated short attached to Cinderella in early 2015 and a 22-minute holiday special (attached to prints of Coco) in overdue 2017, so demand should still be high.

The sole barrier in Frozen II’s manner is, paradoxically, Star Wars:

The Growth of Skywalker and Blue Sky’s revived Spies in Disguise (a Fox/Disney release)opening on Christmas Day. That things, because one huge factor in Frozen’s Album run was the utter lack of kid-friendly contest for its first two weeks in theaters. The big December flicks that year were adult-skewing melodramas (Saving Mister Banks, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, American Hustle, Wolf of Wall Street) and an ultra-violent PG-13 action fantasy (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug).

And 2014 was mostly adult-skewing (Lone Survivor, Paranormal Action:

The Ghost Dimension, That Awkward Moment) before The LEGO Movie in early February. So, if you are wondering how something such as The Nut Job could make $120 million globally in early 2014, there you go. Frozen II will not Have this”only game in town” advantage. It’ll face the now-standard Disney December giant (soon to be an alternating program of Star Wars films and Avatar sequels) along with a deluge of kid-friendly pics (Jumanji 3, Cats, Spies in Disguise, Little Women and Superintelligence).

It’ll also face”bad-ass women” contest from Rise of Skywalker, Terminator: Dark Fate, Charlie’s Angels and Blumhouse’s Black Christmas remake. That isn’t to mention Frozen II will not Be a comparative box office monster, particularly if it’s really good. But at least some of the things that created it unique unto itself in the market in 2013 (supplying two crowd-pleasing female heroes, present as the only big kid flick for 2 weeks, etc.) will not use in 2019. As a result, it might need to settle for”most of the money” as opposed to”all the money.”

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker has one slight advantage over Star Wars:

The Last Jedi. To begin with, it will open on the Friday before school let out for Christmas break. The Last Jedi didn’t Get the”children out of college” edge until its next Monday (New Year’s Day) which really hurt its post-debut legs and led to a good deal of those”Last Jedi murdered Star Wars!” hand-wringing. Secondly, for what it’s worth, its greatest Christmas competition either unlocks a month before (Frozen II), on precisely the same afternoon (Cats) or per week prior (Jumanji: The following Level).

I’d argue that Spies in Disguise is roughly Disney insuring against any Enormous fall in overseas interest in this Star Wars “episode,” But that is for another day. But it also will still face a marketplace where it is not remotely the only kid-friendly game in the city. The Force Awakens made swift work of Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and otherwise confronted mostly adult-skewing (The Large Brief , Sisters, The Hateful Eight, The Revenant) competition (aside from Daddy’s Home). Even Rogue One confronted only Illumination’s Sing over Christmas along with older-skewing titles such as La La Land, Passengers, Collateral Beauty and Assassin’s Creed.

Assuming J.J. Abram’s”final chapter in the Skywalker Saga

Flick is halfway decent and/or relatively crowd-pleasing, there are arguably a few ways that this could go. Star Wars threequels (Return of the Jedi and Revenge of the Sith) make 20-25% over Star Wars sequels (The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones) that in turn earn 1/3 less than the Initial installments (A Brand New Hope, The Phantom Menace, The Force Awakens). Presuming Rise of Skywalker follows this pattern, we are taking a look at a rough guesstimate of $750-$775 million domestic and $1.6-$1.667 billion globally. If this happens , then it’s game-set-match.

But it’s also just as possible that, by virtue of competition, not as of a”Star Wars is still the biggest tentpole franchise in town” mentality and anything else may transpire, which The growth of Skywalker will earn less of an upswing from The Last Jedi if not less than The Last Jedi all around. The nightmare scenario is Jurassic Park III, that earned $181 million domestic (a moderate 21% fall from The Lost World) but only $188 million abroad (-45% compared to The Lost World). That would give Rise of Skywalker would give it $490 million domestic (arguably close to where The Lion King will probably end up) but just $882 million globally.

There’s definitely a lot of wiggle room for Star Wars IX

Between $1.66 billion and $882 million, and it’s arguably the film Will end up someplace between those 2 extremes. But as you can see, It’s no guarantee that the ninth Star Wars episode will end up above where The Lion King finishes, particularly if my $1.4 billion guesstimate proves to be an underestimate. And while it is likely that Frozen II will match or harshly exceed Frozen’s $1.276 billion cume, it’s not guaranteed as the factors are almost opposite what they had been Frozen did its thing in 2013.

Obviously, this is all educated and informed speculation, but it just shows how large The Lion King is Turning out to be. Two of the year’s surefire blockbusters Might have to settle for third and/or fourth place beneath the revived Remake and the Avenger finale. Nobody expects Frozen II or Star Wars IX to get anywhere near Avengers: Endgame’s $2.79 billion cume. But we’ll see whether Disney’s sci-fi show finale and Disney’s animated screenplay can become anywhere near Disney’s animated pun. Yes, this is all good news for Disney either way, but it’s still fun to Run the numbers.

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